His Obsession With Ukraine

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daftcunt's picture
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Let's hope he is right!

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danman's picture
whm2whm3

The conflict is between Russia & NATO. Any hot takes that don't acknowledge this are misleading nonsense.

It was predicted years ago by people like John Mearsheimer who warned in 2016 that if NATO kept pushing Ukraine would be destroyed. NATO encroachment into Ukraine was always a bridge too far, as Lavrov told Burns in 2009. It was always unacceptable to Russia that Ukraine be used as a weapon against them but the west just kept on pushing & even helped topple the Ukraine govt in 2014 then started building Ukraine into a de facto NATO state. They were working on setting up a naval base right next to Sevastopol, Kyiv was making noise about attacking Crimea, attacking Donbass on large scale (again), obtaining nuclear weapons & all sorts of things the western media likes to shove down the memory hole.

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Bobbob's picture
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I hear what you say and I'm curious what your thoughts on Putin's reasoning is when he says he has no problem with Ukraine joining the EU on the other hand. I suppose this would just facilitate the laundering of Russian assets were that the case, win-win for him and his cleptocracy.

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danman's picture
whm2whm3

as for Putin's thoughts - this is the wrong place to start. It's really stupid imo how western press & a lot of westerners think they have some insights into the mind of Putin, especially considering we don't even listen to what he says or understand Russia's economic policies, security concerns, culture or anything. Did you read that link I posted above that outlined Russia's position on Ukraine (and Georgia) back in 2009?

 

as for joining the EU - this was one of thet triggers used back in 2014 during that colour revolution type thing that overthrew Ukraine's government leading to a western client state being installed there.... if you're familiar with what happened there, it was mainly about EU playing hardball in the fine print, demanding concessions that would have screwed Ukraine-Russia trade (Russia was Ukraine's largest trade partner at the time). Thing is I don't think EU even wants Ukraine as a member, it would be a resource sink. What Moscow thinks of Ukraine joining EU now I dunno. Probably they have concerns about their security & trade. Possibly there's some cultural concerns but that's not really what states base decisions on.

 

"I suppose this would just facilitate the laundering of Russian assets were that the case, win-win for him and his cleptocracy"

it's not a win for Putin that Russian assets are laundered through another country. A part of his thing is stopping capital outflows like that. That's not to say there's not corruption in Russia, that would be naive. It's a capitalist country with different interest groups pulling in different directions similar to the US but without such a thick layer of showbiz.

 

If you want to know what makes Putin tick, forget about the western media hatchet jobs, just listen to what he says & watch what he & his govt does. He answered some fairly frank questions a couple days ago in Samarkand - here's an authentic translation of what he said http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69366 (not snippets taken out of context or mis-translated to deliberately mislead ala western press). It can't be much more clear that this Ukraine conflict is seen as existential in Moscow:

But they have always been seeking the dissolution of our country – this is very true. It is unfortunate that at some point they decided to use Ukraine for these purposes. In effect – I am answering your question now and the conclusion suggests itself – we launched our special military operation to prevent events from taking this turn. This is what some US-led Western countries have always been seeking – to create an anti-Russia enclave and rock the boat, threaten Russia from this direction. In essence, our main goal is to prevent such developments.

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Bobbob's picture
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Politics make for strange bedfellows. And I've mentioned before that I watch the Ukrainian war with more than a passing interest, because I suspect Erdogan's Turkey is getting set to use this invasion as a playbook for an invasion of Greek islands; which along with securing additional maritime economic zones and gas deposits (we already established that the Ukraine war has both of these components built-in), would give Erdogan permission to suspend the national election that polls show him as being on track to lose. He's looking to start a war. Whether it's with Syria or Greece is up for grabs at the moment. But I appreciate the perspective.

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danman's picture
whm2whm3

usually politics is a layer of bullshit that can distract from what's really going on imo. Especially petty poltiical drama.

Erdogan leans into nationalism around election time, don't take his bluster too seriously. Between the Kurds in Syria & Iraq, & the Azerbaijan/Armenia situation I think he has plenty of nationalist issues to rile people up on & secure his re-election.

Last I checked the Cyprus sutation seems fairly stable although I don't pay close attention. It's never really fully stable because there are disputed territories.

Turkey & Azerbaijan do have a fair amount of leverage over both EU & Russia at the moment & it seems like Turkey/NATO are exploiting it to poke the bear in another soft spot.

 

edit: i just noticed I gave the wrong link about Russia's opposition to NATO expansion into Ukraine in 2009... this is a better one to read because it's the full cable: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html

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Bobbob's picture
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I'll check it out. But maybe pay attention to my warnings RE things about to heat up between Greece and Turkey. Check this 24H old development. The situation is not as stable as you might think. 

https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-lifts-cyprus-arms-embargo-turkey-claims-decision-lead-arms-race-mediterranean

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