Trump definitely got some puts in and profited off his Twitter posts. Good move for him.
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danmanjones (Old Spike)
A trade war with China is the most ridiculous thing any country could do. Even if USA could win (they can't) it would cause massive sufering.
Trump was doing okay until he fired Tillerson. He's turning into a disaster.
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Trevicahn (Short Spike)
The US would win the Trade War. But it would be horrible and costly, and then pointless as a new president was elected and removed the tariffs. If an item of Chinese manufacture became 25% more expensive i could stomach the cost increase if i REALLY wanted it. So the result is that I only buy things I really need, and since I make the average wage in America i can afford any Tariffed item. It would be shitty but I could do it.
Meanwhile whole manufacture plants in China are shutting down because of a loss of demand. And the average Chinese citizen making the average wage of $8-10,000 per year is now functionally broke and buying less, resulting in more and more Chinese plants shutting down and more unemployment.... with the end result being a massive Chinese Depression.
I feel like people often overlook the major benefit of a trade deficit. Super Cheap Chinese Goods.
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danmanjones (Old Spike)
I agree people are quick to overlook the benefits of cheap Chinese goods - it's a pretty vital part of Western economies these days.
Their manfacturing is experiencing a slower rate of growth right now than was forecast but it's still growing. We've been hearing about the Chinese economy on the brink of failure for at least 5 years. China's economic growth is still 6-7% - numbers that our economists drool at.
I'm not even sure what winning looks like I guess "losing better" is a more apt description of how it could play out. The Chinese govt is not going to back down and accept an obvious loss though.
Sure you might stomach some price increases but sooner or later you'll want to vote out the administration for screwing over your economy. Chinese don't get to vote & even if they did, they're even more nationalistic than Americans IMO.
If it gets more heated the US could look to bring in their friends to help them but USA has the least international prestige they've had in a long time right now thanks to having a reality TV star in the Whitehouse.
If it got even hotter and the US looks to their military to shut down trade routes or covert ops start threatening / ousting governments that don't do their bidding THEN the U.S. would win for sure. It's ill-advised though.
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Trevicahn (Short Spike)
Economics Quote of the Year: "losing better"
Completely true. And pretty damn correct.
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danmanjones (Old Spike)
I've been reading quite a bit about this and the opinions seem pretty split in Western media. For every "USA would win" there is a "USA would lose" or "USA already lost" article.
I hope it get substantially worse before getting better. Slowing down the manufacturing/consumption of cheap, toxic products would be good for everyone & it's a better thing to concentrate on than a conflict with Russia/Iran.
It would be a real East v West juggernaut showdown. Is China ready for their inevitable takeover or are the rumours that central planning just doesn't work, even with clever frugal people like Chinese?
They have about 3 trillion in the bank while USA has about 120 billion and the economic models are so different it would be interesting to see. As usual, because I'm in NZ, we can just sit here, eat popcorn & watch the world burn haha.
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eh (Long Spike)
If there was a penny for every time people have said "It won't effect me, I'm far away" and they themselves got burned, there would be more than enough money to go around for everyone.
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daftcunt (Old Spike)
I disagree. Any organisation with a fluctuation rate like "his" is very unhealthy.
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eh (Long Spike)
"Trump turning into a disaster"
That's actually pretty funny. If you are among people who has known all about him since he was fucking contractors over and lying in his real estate shams many years ago, not only knowing him from reality TV, you know he has been a disaster for a long time and was a disaster for this country the moment he got elected.
Comments
(Long Spike)
Trump definitely got some puts in and profited off his Twitter posts. Good move for him.
(Old Spike)
A trade war with China is the most ridiculous thing any country could do. Even if USA could win (they can't) it would cause massive sufering.
Trump was doing okay until he fired Tillerson. He's turning into a disaster.
(Short Spike)
The US would win the Trade War. But it would be horrible and costly, and then pointless as a new president was elected and removed the tariffs. If an item of Chinese manufacture became 25% more expensive i could stomach the cost increase if i REALLY wanted it. So the result is that I only buy things I really need, and since I make the average wage in America i can afford any Tariffed item. It would be shitty but I could do it.
Meanwhile whole manufacture plants in China are shutting down because of a loss of demand. And the average Chinese citizen making the average wage of $8-10,000 per year is now functionally broke and buying less, resulting in more and more Chinese plants shutting down and more unemployment.... with the end result being a massive Chinese Depression.
I feel like people often overlook the major benefit of a trade deficit. Super Cheap Chinese Goods.
(Old Spike)
I agree people are quick to overlook the benefits of cheap Chinese goods - it's a pretty vital part of Western economies these days.
Their manfacturing is experiencing a slower rate of growth right now than was forecast but it's still growing. We've been hearing about the Chinese economy on the brink of failure for at least 5 years. China's economic growth is still 6-7% - numbers that our economists drool at.
I'm not even sure what winning looks like I guess "losing better" is a more apt description of how it could play out. The Chinese govt is not going to back down and accept an obvious loss though.
Sure you might stomach some price increases but sooner or later you'll want to vote out the administration for screwing over your economy. Chinese don't get to vote & even if they did, they're even more nationalistic than Americans IMO.
If it gets more heated the US could look to bring in their friends to help them but USA has the least international prestige they've had in a long time right now thanks to having a reality TV star in the Whitehouse.
If it got even hotter and the US looks to their military to shut down trade routes or covert ops start threatening / ousting governments that don't do their bidding THEN the U.S. would win for sure. It's ill-advised though.
(Short Spike)
Economics Quote of the Year: "losing better"
Completely true. And pretty damn correct.
(Old Spike)
I've been reading quite a bit about this and the opinions seem pretty split in Western media. For every "USA would win" there is a "USA would lose" or "USA already lost" article.
I hope it get substantially worse before getting better. Slowing down the manufacturing/consumption of cheap, toxic products would be good for everyone & it's a better thing to concentrate on than a conflict with Russia/Iran.
It would be a real East v West juggernaut showdown. Is China ready for their inevitable takeover or are the rumours that central planning just doesn't work, even with clever frugal people like Chinese?
They have about 3 trillion in the bank while USA has about 120 billion and the economic models are so different it would be interesting to see. As usual, because I'm in NZ, we can just sit here, eat popcorn & watch the world burn haha.
(Long Spike)
If there was a penny for every time people have said "It won't effect me, I'm far away" and they themselves got burned, there would be more than enough money to go around for everyone.
(Old Spike)
I disagree. Any organisation with a fluctuation rate like "his" is very unhealthy.
(Long Spike)
"Trump turning into a disaster"
That's actually pretty funny. If you are among people who has known all about him since he was fucking contractors over and lying in his real estate shams many years ago, not only knowing him from reality TV, you know he has been a disaster for a long time and was a disaster for this country the moment he got elected.