Ukraine War Imminent?

I follow geopolitical topics and occasionally write about them. If you want a different and detailed take on what is happening in Ukraine please give this a read. Be forewarned though this is a complicated topic and therefore a bit long.

Alright, as you may (or may not) know, part of Ukraine is in rebellion since 2014. The region in the east of the country in the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. The insurgents are called ‘separatists’ but they don’t actually want to join with Russia as that would mean Russia can’t mess with Ukraine if they did. So they are in a state of permanent rebellion. The Ukrainians and the separatists are separated by a no man’s land, deep inside well entrenched bunkers. Except in a few places. Where the gap is big enough that entire villages can fit within what is called the grey zone.

There is a village in the grey zone. Residents have to walk across a bridge to the Ukrainian side of a river to get their foodstuffs. The Separatists decided to close one side of the bridge. The local Ukrainian commander goes ‘maybe we should build a new bridge’. They say they are doing it to help civilians cross for groceries. Maybe they are. The Separatists see this and go ‘they are building a new bridge to allow them send over armoured vechicles’. Maybe that’s true. So... the separatists start shelling the new bridge construction. Or try to.

But they are crap at it and hit local houses. And they fire a few shells, then move, then fire more... the Ukrainians can’t fire artillery back. Can’t get a fix on them. So? A Local Ukrainian Army commander asks for a drone. Naturally the drone can move and hover and zero in on the artillery. So this is approved and the Ukrainian Drone is unleashed and swifty and efficently takes out the separatist artillery placement.  The drone by the way is a Turkish made drone. The same type of drones the Azerbaijanians just used to make utter mincemeat of the Armenian Army with. The Armenian’s were packing big Russian weapon systems. The Turkish drones just turned expensive Russian weapon systems into coffins.

The moment the separatists get wind of this they tell their Russian sugar daddies. And the Russians? They shit themselves. THOSE drones?! The ones which just made the world realise that all those expensive Russian weapon systems may not be worth it? The ones which on paper could be used to wipe out the insurgency? The result? Putin sends 100,000 troops to the border, has a melt down, completely because they used THOSE drones. I wish I made any of that up. 

So here we are today, February 16 2022. Are we about to see war in Europe... again?

So what do we know? I Russia has about 100,000-130,000 or so troops from Military Department-West (and some from Military Department-South as well supposedly) near the Ukrainian border in the West and deployed into Belarus. This isn’t a planned exercise. To folks in Ukraine, the EU, NATO and the US? Best case it’s an attempt to intimidate Ukraine. Worst case? It’s an invasion force. According to the Congressional Research Service this build up is ‘significant... falling outside normal troop rotations or military exercises, due to the deployment of units over long distances and far away from their usual training grounds’. 

Such a force would literally be too large to stop. Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower and war ultimately is a numbers game. However, with the US allowing other NATO states send their US weapon systems to Ukraine (such as the Baltics) the aim seems to be to help Ukraine (NOT a member of NATO) by giving shiny new weapons which could allow them have a slightly better chance if a fight does start. Watching the events unfold over the past 2 months has been interesting to say the least. We had the allegation by the United States that Russia was planting guys into Ukraine for the purpose of possibly attacking their own people and saying it was the Ukrainians who did it and thus giving Russia an excuse to go to war. That was a bit of a bombshell, as the western powers typically never share this kind of intelligence (especially when it is them doing false flag operations).

Everyone is being kind of paranoid. Ukraine claimed the Russians were moving their people out of their embassy in Kiev (like you would do before an invasion), a story that the New York Times reported and others picked up on. The US has requested diplomatic families to leave the country and the US embassy in Kyiv is ordering its computer equipment destroyed reports today say .. Meanwhile the German head of state is in Moscow for urgent talks, while Russia's notice of standing down some units looks more like redeployment movements and maybe a feint.

So what is Putin doing?

Well, the theory amidst some, is that simply Russia has tried competing with the West and China when it came to ‘soft’ power. And has totally failed. China for example, dwarfs it and does its own thing (China isn’t interested in Russia’s claims on Ukraine- it has its own links with Ukraine. And the West? Well a slew of former Soviet Union controlled nations are now independent and wish never again to be under Russian domination, so they joined the mutual defence alliance, NATO. Russia has tried everything in their soft power to prevent this. Diplomacy, sulks, threats... It didn’t work. So it appears as if Putin is using hard power to get his aims. If he can’t convince them by words... use force. It’s a theory anyway. One of MANY.

Now again and again we hear from Russia that NATO’s expansion is dangerous. However let’s put it like this: during the ACTUAL Cold War, both Sweden and Finland refused to join NATO. They kept a policy of strict neutrality. They saw no advantage in joining NATO. Now? Now in the face of Russia being so blatantly aggressive? They are debating joining NATO. Why wouldn’t they be? And of course Russia threatens retaliation if they do.. So while Russia is talking about Ukraine, as I said above, from their (possibly bullshit) POV it’s all about NATO.

It is worth noting NATO has accepted new members since 1997 but they NEVER deployed US troops into the new member states so as not to antagonise Russia. Ever. Well until 2014 anyway. And that came as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to seize Crimea. That’s when NATO began responding to requests from new members for help with training and stuff. This row has led to the ongoing ‘negotiations’ between NATO and Russia over military forces; Russia sees NATO as ‘America’ and really only wants to talk to the Americans but the issue with NATO is that it’s a lot of countries, all of whom are legally obligated to defend each other and changes in policy have to be agreed by ALL members to be ratified. So the Russians are trying to get America to negotiate a treaty about Europe without Europe being involved. Europe is having none of that, so America cannot do so (even if they wanted to but they don’t). If you want to get lost in the intricate issues involved in the talks try this.

Basically as one commentator said recently- Russia began the talks with NATO by issuing an ultimatum. And usually folks only begin talks with ultimatums so they can say the talks failed and use it as a pretext to go to war.

So a war this week? Maybe. Allied Resolve 2022. Is the joint Russia-Belarus military exercise taking place right now on the Northern Ukrainian border. It’s all about ‘defending themselves’. Supposedly from Ukraine (who are not in position to attack anyone). Extra troops were deployed to the north of Ukraine beyond the 100,000 or so already deployed to the east. These forces were in place from February 9th and Allied Resolve supposedly takes place between February 10th to 20th. The dates are significant. Remember them for a bit.

In Putin’s mind, it seems he wants to return to the days when Russia ran one part of Europe and America ran another part of Europe; but the world has moved on and countries are clearly deciding they want to enter a mutual defence agreement which prevents Russia from expanding its influence. So this is going to lead to war then right? Well... again no. I keep being drawn to the same news stories again and again and again... How calm it is in Ukraine and Russia. How skeptical the civilians on both sides are about the possibility of war happening. Why the sense of ‘it’s not going to happen’ from the civilians on the ground? Why is the media hysteric but the folks who’d be on the front line not? What are we missing?

Well, is there anyone (who isn’t working for the Russian government and going ‘we are the victims here’ constantly) saying Russia won’t attack? A few. Oddly enough Time magazine had a recent cover story based on an interview with leading Russian dissident Alexai Navalny. Navalny IS the man who has successfully upset/wound up Putin more than any other in the world today, but he is equally critical of the West. His interview is interesting. The quotes that stood out for me? “Time and again the West falls into Putin’s elementary traps... It just takes my breath away, watching how Putin pulls this on the American establishment again and again.”

 What is he on about? Well all this desire to prevent NATO from expanding and so forth is, according to Navalny, a smokescreen. ‘It is not what he [Putin] claims to be concerned about: the deployment of U.S. forces in Eastern Europe, or the chance that Ukraine might one day join the NATO alliance. “Instead of ignoring this nonsense,” Navalny writes, “the U.S. accepts Putin’s agenda and runs to organize some meetings. Just like a frightened schoolboy who’s been bullied by an upperclassman.”  The article says, ‘What Putin truly fears is what Navalny’s movement seeks—a change of power in Russia, followed by cashiering its corrupt clan of oligarchs and spies. It isn’t NATO that keeps Putin up at night; it’s the space for democratic dissent that NATO opens up along his border. This fear, Navalny argues, is what drives all the conflicts Russia wages with the West. “To consolidate the country and the elites,” he writes, “Putin constantly needs all these extreme measures, all these wars—real ones, virtual ones, hybrid ones or just confrontations at the edge of war, as we’re seeing now.”

And this is consistent with what basically all Russian opposition to Putin has been saying, Putin fears losing power. His entire state apparatus is designed to keep him IN power. That’s it. He isn’t the only totalitarian crook in charge of a nation in the region. Last year the moron in charge of Belarus faced protests who he immediately blamed on ‘foreign powers’ and then unleashed troops to come down upon them. And earlier this year when protests swept through Kazakhstan, killing scores of protestors and police, the President there issued a ‘shoot to kill’ order and then called for Russian help. The Russians sent thousands of troops from the Central Military District and they all just shot everyone until the protests ended. He also immediately blamed ‘foreign powers’.

Whenever democratic forces demand reform of these rather despotic nations? It’s foreigners. Usually the US. At least according to these guys. Which brings us back to Putin. Vladimir Putin has a big problem. The last election was really bad for him. Now on paper it wasn’t bad at all. United Russia (his party) is way and by far the largest party in the Russian Duma having clocked up 49.82% of the vote and holding 324 seats (the nearest rivals, the old Communist party, holds 57 seats with 18.93% of the vote). How can this be said to be a disaster?  Consider there are wide spread and documented cases of vast amounts of vote rigging; of false ballots, of ‘carousel voters’ (voters being bused around to vote many times) and more. Added to this Putin had jailed the main opposition leaders. And added to this Putin controls the media in Russia so his parties point of view is perpetuated 24/7. And even with THAT? He can’t even get 50% of the vote? All of that and he could only gain 49.82%?

Putin isn’t dumb. He knows he is unpopular. He needs to do something to regain a surge in support. Back with the annexation of Crimea? That worked for him. He gained a huge pop. He wants a huge pop. 2024 is the Presidential Election. Remember, Putin is somewhat venal. He wants to feel like he has won. So a small incursion in Ukraine to revive his flagging popularity? That makes terrible sense. Oh and while we are on the subject of Crimea?

Crimea has become a hot mess for Russia. Consider. One quarter of the Crimean economy came from tourism. That collapsed. The place isn’t working. And the biggest issue is water. See Crimea got its water from... Ukraine. And as such when Russia took Crimea, Ukraine said ‘supply your own damn water’. It wasn’t much of a weapon. But it was surprisingly powerful. To compensate for the water issues alone Russia has spent over a five year period more money than it spent on its entire state healthcare system over the last three years. How bad is it? In the Soviet Era there were 400,000 hectares of arable land in the Crimea. Before the Russians took over inefficiency in the post-Soviet Ukrainian system had seen this drop to 140,000 hectares. One year after Russia took over? It’s down to 14,000 hectares. The Crimean agricultural industry is dead. And the same time millions of Russia’s moved to the Crimea; all filled with hope and national pride and... and... are now having to ration water.

Russia actually had the nerve to accuse Ukraine of trying to commit Genocide for doing this (aside from the audacity of invading a place and then sending the guys you kicked out the bill, it IS worth saying that technically under all international law- you occupy somewhere? You are responsible for it). So long side story short, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. They took Crimea. It made Putin more popular than he has ever been before. And then, like the Russia Olympic triumphs in the Winter Olympics of 2014? It turned out to be a dog turd covered in glitter spray. Like so much of what Putin promises. Crimea cost Russia a lot and that’s not even considering the price it had to pay because of sanctions imposed upon it after than and since then because they keep launching cyber attacks upon America. 

So what is going to happen and why do I think it is happening now? The following is my assessment based on reading far too much about this situation and simply trying to make sense of it all. I could be completely wrong. I probably am. But for what it’s worth... All politics is local.  Putin has issues at home. His economy is in serious trouble. He faces widespread dissent towards his regime. He has had to lock up political opposition, curtail protests and clamp down hard. His standard playbook for years has been to create a foreign crisis for Russian to deal with to shore up support for him. Russians have become somewhat cynical about this- this is why we are seeing the lack of belief this current situation will amount to much amidst Russians. However Putin panders. Especially to older voters.

Back in 2018, faced with crippling costs to pay for them, he finally introduced pension reforms despite wide spread protests (the reforms while needed economically, were badly done and at least one party ran on a platform of rolling back these reforms during the last election. He needs older voters. They are a bedrock of support for him. The pension thing they don’t like. But what these older voters DO like is the memory of Russia dominating the world. They remember when it was the effective ruler of Eastern Europe. The pride in their strength. They remember that pride. Putin wants to give them that. This is why he wishes to expand Russian influence and wishes for a Europe where Russia dominates half. Why a mutual defence pact between democratic nations does threaten his dreams of delivering that.

And so he plays brinksmanship. This is not the first time he had 100,000 troops in and around the Ukraine border. This is the third time in a year he has done this to be precise. It does make everyone rush to calm down the situation and he looks like the big man with big dick energy. So it’s all bluff? Maybe. But based on the rhetoric this time it would be harder for him to back down without losing face it seems. But the thing is with Putin you just never underestimate him. Putin is gambling that Europe can’t afford sanctions against Russia given the huge dependency is has on Russian LNG.

In some ways Putin has succeeded in exposing the realpolitik at the heart of the issue. Germany isn’t 100% behind intervening in Ukraine. NATO is not totally united. The Eastern European nations are very concerned about Russia, some of the others less so, while some like Canada and the UK are quite militant. It is these divisions that give Putin wriggle room, and where he calculates the odds may be in his favour. However if all politics are domestic... what does this mean about the American response? The Biden administration is a post-Iraq War administration. America has lost its appetite for large scale intervention in places it seems. He has to run a very divided nation, but luckily here he is a veteran of dealing with Putin (much more formidable than the previous President, whose involvement in Ukraine is a low moment in US history - IMO).

The Americans do seem to be playing Russia the way they have been playing them since 2017. They don’t back down. They call out his agents and expose plans which is diplomatic speak for ‘look what we know about you; what are we NOT saying? What do we know that you don’t want us to say?’ It’s actually a fairly smart game. Blinken’s recent statement how even ‘one additional Russian force’ would trigger a response reinforces Biden’s comments a few days prior about a limited Russian incursion (at the time many saw that as a Biden gaff; it now becomes clear he was referring to Germany and their position). And to be clear- the US has not said it will send troops into Ukraine. They won’t be doing. Period. What he said was a very specific threat- IF Russia goes into Ukraine then he will send about 5,000 into mostly the Baltic states reminding Russia that America has been quite easy going about things. And this is combined with threatening to step up the sanctions, is quite a robust position all things considered. It’s a game of bluff and dare.

Putin is running out of time though. Does he risk it? Does he say expand the Donbass territory? Does he go all in knowing the costs of occupying Ukraine would be immense? Can he back down and save face? Can he back down and then do this again in a few months or has he spent all his political revenue on this crisis? Only time will tell. I am inclined to believe there will NOT be a huge war. Ukraine hasn’t attacked Russian forces and the US exposing the Russians potential for a fake attack upon them has rather reduced the effectiveness of any such claims from Russia. 

I think he is judging the situation. Carefully. I think he is calculating. Reading the comments by NATO leaders. And I think he has another incentive to hold off until the end of this months or at least until the end of the Olympics. Invading Ukraine now will seriously piss off China. China doesn’t want the Olympic Games ruined by a war going on. They have refuted the allegation that they asked Putin NOT to invade, and I don’t think he’d obey them if they ever said that, but he doesn’t want to annoy them or make THEM lose face. Especially as he stuff planned with China. Let us not forget that Russia has also been grandstanding elsewhere... They are busy meeting with Iran to discuss the Iran nuclear deal. Which is why they are organising drills in the Indian Ocean (with Iran and China...) While operating naval drills right across the world apparently..

So, cards on the table? The Olympics closing ceremony takes place on February 20th when his joint Russian-Belarus military war games also end. He went into Crimea after the Sochi Olympics it should be noted. BUT if he delays his attack (if he’s going to attack at all) into the Spring, the Spring thaw makes Ukraine something of a mud bath making any invasion more difficult. So IF he is going to attack? It will be now, February, post the Olympic games.

I believe he is contemplating if he should risk an attack... or if he can claim victory from making the west dance to his tune again. If he can do the latter? He will back down and smile as he made us all panic like this. If he can’t? He may try for a limited incursion. And hope it doesn’t escalate while the Ukrainians use their new weapons to try and give him a bloody nose. I could be very wrong on this but for what it’s worth... I think he will grab the Donbas region. I wish to god that he would just quit and walk away, but he is too deep in at this point and I don't think he can. 

While I find this all very fascinating, I really can't stand the thought of a whole bunch of people suffering and dying over the stupid machinations of a paranoid egomaniac. I hope it doesn't come to that.

"I'm fed up to the ears with old men dreaming up wars for young men to die in." George McGovern